Forecasting Windfarm Production

With the Advanced Distributed Monitoring System, forecast service providers can obtain time series windfarm data in real-time directly from the ADMS Supervisor computers. Using this interface, forecasting services, such as TrueWind*, will be able to predict wind power production potential for a given time period with much greater precision. With actual time series data, a more accurate prediction of the amount of power to be delivered from the windfarm can be made. The three types of data that will be available are:
  • 10-minute time series data: power output, turbine availability, and meteorological data from the permanent met stations.
  • 1-hour time series data: power output, turbine availability, and meteorological data from the permanent met stations.
  • Turbine availability data: projected turbine downtime for the upcoming 7 days (input by operator).
This data, collected from each permanent MET station and turbine group, will be placed in three separate files, which will then be available to the forecaster and transferred via File Transfer Protocol (FTP). The time series data will come directly from the ADMS database, while the Turbine Availability Forecast will be derived from data input by the windfarm operators.

The Availability Forecast file provides the forecasting service with an accurate estimate of the number of available turbines during the upcoming 7 days. By knowing how many turbines are scheduled to be available, the forecasting service can produce a more accurate forecast for the total windfarm power output. The file will be maintained by the windfarm operator, allowing for manual adjustments that will indicate when turbines are expected to be off-line for any one-hour interval during the upcoming 7 days.

The Supervisors will be configured as FTP servers. The FTP software contains resident security features that will confine the forecaster’s access to the directory containing the forecast files.

* TrueWind Solutions, LLC., Albany, NY
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